Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 2.236077 2.606410 3.016913 3.505412 4.070666 4.703966 5.467195
2026-01-11 1.645119 2.136110 2.738949 3.532372 4.548125 5.803978 7.473995
2026-01-18 1.271559 1.804673 2.516589 3.534104 4.948488 6.842448 9.569164
2026-01-25 1.014842 1.553283 2.325284 3.508155 5.270071 7.792212 11.671885
2026-02-01 0.787977 1.289259 2.054448 3.300798 5.273116 8.265706 13.142107
2026-02-08 0.640876 1.113078 1.875335 3.186381 5.375601 8.872894 14.869112
2026-02-15 0.544546 0.998487 1.769379 3.162224 5.603534 9.688511 17.019594
2026-02-22 0.491086 0.946153 1.755486 3.284749 6.085568 10.972644 20.112292
2026-03-01 0.425734 0.859786 1.666343 3.256425 6.292154 11.802632 22.515992
2026-03-08 0.368220 0.777634 1.570693 3.198218 6.429697 12.517954 24.794638
2026-03-15 0.326806 0.719914 1.511792 3.199439 6.675907 13.458078 27.608858
2026-03-22 0.315050 0.721411 1.569877 3.441680 7.429230 15.459484 32.742833
2026-03-29 0.285184 0.680553 1.538213 3.501097 7.834456 16.859682 36.933228
2026-04-05 0.258072 0.641487 1.505131 3.554494 8.240029 18.325977 41.492016
2026-04-12 0.231345 0.598473 1.456437 3.565452 8.554698 19.644350 45.923735
2026-04-19 0.206022 0.554131 1.397339 3.542453 8.787932 20.814995 50.190102
2026-04-26 0.173663 0.485820 1.269757 3.334156 8.552939 20.897279 51.973311
2026-05-03 0.150901 0.438324 1.185490 3.218959 8.524922 21.452538 54.945147
2026-05-10 0.135477 0.407890 1.139683 3.194680 8.720369 22.566205 59.425904
2026-05-17 0.128153 0.398996 1.149237 3.318472 9.316794 24.743823 66.862305
2026-05-24 0.115538 0.372191 1.105601 3.289880 9.503195 25.909573 71.857132
2026-05-31 0.103332 0.344262 1.054195 3.231095 9.598145 26.850738 76.389904
2026-06-07 0.094486 0.325139 1.025117 3.232331 9.862348 28.277020 82.429143